As projected in the April market update, the month didn’t arrive with a single defining event. It arrived with several – and that’s what makes the current market harder to navigate than it looks on the surface.
An energy crisis of historic scale is rippling through diesel prices. The freight market is tightening structurally, not just seasonally. International Roadcheck is on the horizon for mid-May. And warmer temperatures are beginning to raise the stakes for every product that can’t afford a break in the cold chain.
None of these forces are operating in isolation. Together, fuel, capacity, and cold chain execution are taking center stage and creating a market that’s harder to operate in – and less forgiving of the gaps that a softer environment might have absorbed.
The Hormuz Crisis and What it Means for Diesel
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is what the International Energy Agency (IEA) has called the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market – Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel in March for the first time in four years, and prices held above that threshold until this past week where it began shifting down again, without a way to tell what it will do next.
For the U.S. transportation market, that translates directly into diesel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) April Short-Term Energy Outlook projected diesel peaking above $5.80 per gallon, with crude oil prices expected to remain elevated well into the back half of the year as supply disruptions unwind slowly.
This isn’t a price spike that resolves on a short timeline. Analysts note there’s no simple way to reroute most of the oil and gas that normally transits the strait – pipelines can replace only a fraction of the usual volume, meaning any prolonged blockage directly reduces global supply rather than simply delaying it.
For shippers, the diesel impact shows up in the usual places: carrier rate adjustments, fuel surcharges, and decisions about how freight gets routed and which lanes get priority. But the bigger issue is duration. This isn’t a two-week event. It’s an energy market in recovery mode, and recovery will take time. Ships are only just starting to safely clear the Strait of Hormuz, but tensions remain.
A Freight Market That Was Already Tightening
Overlay that fuel picture onto a freight market that was already shifting, and the picture gets more complicated.
According to DAT Freight & Analytics, dry van spot rates are running more than 20% higher than a year ago, while contract rates have moved less than 5% -- a gap that signals a market turn. Available spot capacity has returned to levels last seen in 2018, the last time shipper routing guides failed regularly and spot exposure carried real cost.
The market isn’t fully there yet, but the structural direction is clear. Fuel costs aren’t just adding expense – they’re actively accelerating fleet rationalization and making capacity deployment more selective. With diesel accounting for more than 20% of carrier operating costs, margin pressure is real, and carriers are responding accordingly.
The result is a market where trucks are still available, but less forgiving of last-minute moves, loose schedules, or spot dependency.
Roadcheck Adds a Short-Term Constraint in Mid-May
From May 12-14, enforcement personnel throughout North America will conduct inspections as part of CVSA’s International Roadcheck. This year’s inspection focus covers two areas:
- Cargo securement – whether loads are properly restrained and meet North American standard requirements
- ELD compliance – specifically tampering, falsification, or manipulation of electronic logging devices
Every year, Roadcheck introduces a temporary reduction in available capacity as some drivers opt to park rather than run during the inspection period. Primary tender acceptance rates can dip, lanes in the 500-600-mile range tend to be at higher risk, and freight that doesn’t move during that window typically concentrates on Friday’s board.
On its own, a 72-hour blitz is manageable. In a market already dealing with elevated fuel costs, structural capacity tightening, and a spot-to-contract rate spread that hasn’t been seen in years, the timing matters more than usual.
The practical guidance is straightforward: plan earlier, build in buffer, and don’t count on Friday as a clean recovery day.
Temperature is Now a Bigger Part of the Equation
As May settles in, another variable starts to matter more operationally: heat.
For food, beverage, and other temperature-sensitive products, warmer conditions don’t just raise risk – they reduce the margin for errors across the entire handling chain. A dwell time that was acceptable in February can become a problem in May. Packaging that performed fine in cooler months may face new stress. Delays that extend transit windows , for any reason, carry more consequences.
Cold chain performance doesn’t get tested under ideal conditions. It gets tested when heat, timing, and handling pressure intersect – which is exactly what this part of the calendar introduces.
This is when process discipline in temperature-controlled storage and fulfillment becomes visible. Facilities with strong protocols handle the seasonal transition without incident. At scale, that difference isn’t theoretical – it shows up in claims, retailer compliance issues, and lost product.
What This Looks Like in Practice
May isn’t going to be defined by a single disruption. It’s going to reflect how supply chains handle several pressures running simultaneously:
- Fuel volatility that isn’t short-lived
- Capacity tighter than it’s been in years, structurally not just seasonally
- A 72-hour inspection window starting May 12
- Cold chain risk that increases with every degree of ambient temperature
For shippers who plan ahead, this environment is navigable. For those who rely on the market to absorb inefficiency, it will be a frustrating few weeks.
That’s where partner selection starts to matter more. In a market like this, organizational discipline isn’t just a value-add – it’s a differentiator. The 3PLs worth working with have process rigor baked into how they operate: documented protocols, visibility into execution, and accountability that doesn’t depend on conditions being favorable.
That kind of operational credibility is harder to fake when the market is less forgiving – and increasingly, shippers are looking for signals beyond sales conversation to validate it. Third-party credentials like EcoVadis ratings, which assess operational and sustainability management practices across an organization, are one way that distinction becomes legible from the outside.
The difference in May won’t be the conditions. It’ll be the execution underneath them – and who you’re trusting to deliver it.
Worth a Conversation
If the market is starting to feel less manageable – not because your volume is growing, but because the environment is getting less forgiving – that’s a signal worth paying attention to. Connect with our team to talk through where your network is most exposed and what practical steps can improve both resilience and execution heading into summer.
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