The Source for October 2025: Freight Relief, Harvest Crunch, and Warehousing Opportunity

 Welcome to The Source — your monthly market intelligence from Source Logistics, where we connect logistics trends to operational strategies you can act on today.  

Freight markets are offering rare breathing room this fall. Shipments remain soft, spot rates are flat, and ocean rates continue to slide. But while transportation costs ease, Food & Beverage supply chains face an opposing force: harvest peaks and hurricane risks that strain cold storage and distribution networks. 

The opportunity this October is to convert freight relief into warehousing readiness – using the cost window to secure space, rebalance networks, and build resilience before holiday demand hits. 

Logistics At a Glance 

• Freight Volumes Still Sliding: August shipments fell -1.5% month over month (seasonally adjusted) and -9.3% year over year, while expenditures dropped -2.8% month over month (Cass Info, September 2025 report). Softer volumes give shippers leverage to carry inventory longer. 

• A Slight Trucking Tonnage Uptick: ATA tonnage rose +0.9% month over month (seasonally adjusted) to 115.3, still below prior peaks (ATA Tonnage Report). Cass + ATA combine to suggest fewer shipments overall, but heavier truckloads in certain lanes. For Food & Bev, this points to harvest and seasonal consolidation effects rather than a broad freight rebound. 

• Reefer Rates Defy the Season: National dry van and reefer spot rates held flat in late September, despite harvest surges (DAT Trendlines). An unusual break for Food & Bev shippers during peak produce season. 

• Ocean Rates Keep Sinking: Drewry’s World Container Index dropped to $1,761/FEU, its 15th straight weekly decline (Drewry WCI, Sept. 25). Lower import costs, but blank sailings may follow. 

• Manufacturing Momentum Cools: S&Ps September flash Purchasing Manager’s Index slipped to 53.6, with manufacturing at 52.0 (S&P Global PMI Flash, September 2025). Growth still positive, but slowing under tariff pressure. 

The Big Picture for October 

• Freight relief = warehousing opportunity. With capacity soft across modes, you can redirect budgets toward stabilizing DC networks. 

• Harvest crunch is real. Produce, beverages, and packaged goods are surging into the system, tightening reefer storage and regional capacity even as national rates soften. 

• Hurricane risk persists. Storms can quickly disrupt Gulf and Southeast facilities, forcing rapid transfers and overflow planning. Start thinking about how quickly could you spin up a relief-valve warehouse if you needed to. 

• Consumer resilience continues. Retail sales remain strong, particularly in ecomm and grocery, showing that warehouse demand isn't fading even as manufacturing cools. 

• Imports and cross-border matter. Ocean relief is good news for LATAM and global shippers, but tariff policy and U.S.-Mexico cross-border flows remain wildcards that can swing Food & Bev inventories quickly. For example, China is probing U.S. and Mexican tariffs, including launching an anti-dumping investigation into pecans imported from Mexico and the United States. 

Operational Insights for October: 

Warehousing & Distribution 

• Market Insight: Freight softness is giving shippers room to reallocate spend – but harvest flows and holiday imports are filling cold and dry storage unevenly. 

• Impact: Some facilities are over capacity while others are underutilized, leading to cost and inefficiency gaps. 

• Recommended Focus: Secure overflow cold storage now, rebalance multi-node networks, and prepare for volatility from hurricanes or last-minute holiday demand. 

Fulfillment 

• Market Insight: Ecomm food and beverage sales are still growing at a double-digit pace, with non-store retail up +10.1% year over year in August, but order patterns are volatile. 

• Impact: Fulfillment centers risk bottlenecks if warehouse slotting upstream isn’t managed. 

• Recommended Focus: Align fulfillment labor with DC slotting and ensure cold-pack stations aren’t overwhelmed by harvest surges. 

Transportation 

• Market Insight: Truckload and reefer spot rates remain soft, and ocean rates have dropped for 15 consecutive weeks. 

• Impact: Lower freight costs gives shippers flexibility to reposition inventory – but only if warehouse space and labor are ready. 

• Recommended Focus: Use the soft freight market to stage SKUs closer to demand centers; the payoff comes in reduced strain later. 

Technology 

• Market Insight: AI-powered forecasting and visibility tools are expanding quickly, with new platforms helping shippers track perishables, predict demand shifts, and manage labor volatility. 

• Impact: For Food & Bev, better visibility and predictive analytics mean less waste during harvest and peak season and faster response when weather disrupts supply chains. 

• Recommended Focus: Invest in integrations that unify warehousing, transportation, and order data; evaluate AI tools that enhance cold chain tracking, demand planning, and compliance automation. 

Warehouse in a Box & Rapid Deployment 

• Market Insight: Seasonal peaks are creating unpredictable regional storage crunches – from produce harvests to beverage demand surges. Hurricane season is adding another layer of uncertainty. 

• Impact: When storms hit, even the best-laid distribution plans can unravel. Warehouse in a Box solutions provide relief, letting shippers stand up temporary storage when permanent facilities are inaccessible or at capacity. 

• Recommended Focus: Keep rapid-deployment options on standby for both harvest overflow and weather emergencies. Pre-identify staging areas and labor partners so you can move quickly if hurricanes disrupt your core network. 

Value-Added Services 

• Market Insight: Retailers and foodservice distributors are tightening compliance as Q4 begins – from labeling to kitting to temperature tracking. 

• Impact: Brands that can customize late in the chain protect margins and speed-to-shelf, while those that can’t risk penalties or delays. 

• Recommended Focus: Audit your VAS playbook now (labeling, repack, kitting, quality checks, etc.) to ensure agility for harvest surges and holiday orders. 

What’s Around the Corner? 

1. Cass September Data (mid-October): Does freight softness deepen, giving shippers even more leverage? We’ll find out.  
2. Hurricane impacts: Gulf/Southeast facilities will remain vulnerable through late season. 
3. Ocean blank sailings: Carrier pullbacks could tighten capacity and shift timing into DCs. 
4. Retail resilience: Continued consumer demand will pressure warehouse throughput heading into the holidays. 
5. Cross-border dynamics: Watch for tariff shifts, trade tensions, or U.S.-Mexico policy changes that could affect LATAM imports and seasonal produce flows. 

Ready to Turn Relief into Resilience? 

October’s freight softness won’t last forever. For Food & Beverage brands, the real advantage comes from how you use this window – whether that’s locking in overflow cold storage, securing rapid-deployment options for hurricane season, or tightening compliance through value-added services. 

Let’s review your warehousing and distribution plan now so you can capture today’s freight relief and be ready when harvest peaks, holiday demand, and policy shifts reshape tomorrow’s supply chain.